The deer ran off downhill with its tail between its legs. It acted hit. I watched it run for at least 75 yards and never heard it fall. I waited about 45 minutes before climbing out of the stand. Once I hit the ground I immediately got the feeling I overestimated the distance and shot a bit high. The deer was about 25 yards out and I figured 30. My first scan of where he was standing and down the trail of tracks returned no sign other than turned up leaves. It appeared that he was hitting the ground hard with the back legs digging in the ground hard. I returned to the point of the shot and found the arrow.
Crap, literally. The arrow had some red near the broadhead, but the rest of the arrow was screaming classic gut shot. I followed the tracks again and finally found first blood about 40 yards downhill. It was very dark red. I found very little blood in all, less than a half cup over 100 yards. Some spots I could tell were not all blood, but not big stomach contents (acorns, corn, etc) either.
The blood got real skimpy about 125 yards out as the deer headed into a deep ravine where it gets quite thick. Since it had only been about an hour, I decided to pull back out and return after an hour or so to take my dog for a walk. He's a specialist in these situations.

About 2 1/2 hours after the shot I returned armed with nothing but my dog on a leash. I took him to the point of the hit and got him on the trail. A dog's nose is amazing. We took off walking directly down the path of travel briefly stopping to smell spots of blood. Getting to the edge of the ravine took about 2 minutes. At the point where things got skimpy to me, my dog wanted to veer left instead of entering the ravine as I had expected based on the direction of travel. My dog was convinced to go left and was tugging hard on the leash as if the deer was VERY close. Close enough that he wanted to run. I pulled him back toward me to try to calm him down and slowly proceed. He was having nothing of it. The scent was overwhelming to him. He started barking looking down the hill. I wanted quiet so as I grabed for him to silence him the buck jumped up out of a tree top not 20 steps in front of us and headed down into the ravine. Dangit.
At the point where I had stopped trailing I was standing well within bow range of the buck all along. For at least 15 minutes I was within 25-50 yards of this deer while tracking it. I watched the buck run down into the ravine and immediately reversed my course. I pulled back out again and will let the buck lay down again.
I would have, and should have, waited longer to go back after the buck but we have a storm front moving in. That is part of the reason I was up a tree. Between now and mid-day tomorrow we have a 100% chance of rain and expect 1-2" total. Since I should wait at least 4-8 hours, I will end up waiting until the weather clears before trying to locate the deer again. The area I am hunting in is rather small (<20 acres) and I have a very good idea of where the deer was going to bed up. I'm confident if I don't push it, I can recover it with my dog even after a rain. Especially given that the deer should have a less than favorable aroma. Todays temp is 45 degrees and it should stay that low until the weather clears. My only question is how good the meat will be given the poor shot and a lengthy hopeful recovery.
I guess my luck ran out on this one. I've got my fingers crossed that I'll be able to recover him in the end.